Europe Caught between Putin and Trump

Even if Biden is reelected, Europeans are aware that the era of strong transatlantic presidents may be coming to an end.

I write a regular column for Politico.eu called From Across the Pond. Below is an excerpt of my latest, reflecting on what happened at the Munich Security Conference that took place over the weekend. You can read the full column here.

Two big news stories set the stage for this year’s Munich Security Conference, the annual convention of security policy wonks in the picturesque Bavarian town, held in the shadow of the Alps.

As the meeting got underway, news broke that Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from Avdiivka — the strategically important town in eastern Donbas, which Russia had never conquered in 10 years of war. The fight for this small city was brutal, and Ukraine held out for months against terrible odds. But in the end, Russia proved too strong for a Ukrainian army running out of people and ammunition.

Then came the shocking news of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death in a remote Siberian prison. No one at Munich bought Moscow’s story that Russia’s most prominent dissident and thorn in President Vladimir Putin’s side had died of natural causes. Already poisoned once, Navalny’s sudden exile to a remote Arctic outpost had already suggested he might not come back alive.

“If your beliefs are worth something, you must be willing to stand up for them,” Navalny had written on Facebook on the third anniversary of his captivity. “And if necessary, make some sacrifices.” That he did.

Playing out in quick succession, both these events made for a sobering mood at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof. And sitting in meetings, talking over meals and in corridors over the past two days, my overriding sense was of a Europe confronting its greatest fears — a growing worry that Russia is winning in Ukraine and could turn to the rest of Europe next, and the increasing realization that the U.S. may well elect a leader who doesn’t believe in NATO and treats allies more like foes.

“Europe finds itself between Putin and Trump,” former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt told me. And the Continent now needs to figure out a way to take care of itself. But can it? Will it? These were the questions dominating the weekend. [Click here to read the rest of the column.]