Finally, Ukraine Aid. But Is It Too Late?

The House passed much-needed military and economic aid for Ukraine today, breaking a months-long deadlock. But is the aid, first requested six months ago, arriving in time?

For the past six months, whenever I talked to senior officials in the Biden administration, I was reassured that Congress would soon act on the president’s request to send $60 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.

I was deeply skeptical, believing that the deep divisions within the Republican party, especially in the House, would hold up a vote on the aid request. That skepticism was reinforced when Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, came out against more aid early in this year. And I believed Speaker Mike Johnson’s various machinations to find a Republican majority for some form of aid was little more than a fool’s errand.

But it turned out I was wrong. This afternoon, the House overwhelmingly approved an only slightly modified aid package for Ukraine. The vote was 311-112, with a majority of Republicans voting against and all Democrats voting in favor. That’s not a surprise. It has been clear since August (when Biden submitted his initial request for Ukraine aid to Congress) that a very large majority in the House supports helping Ukraine defeat Russia’s brutal aggression. The question was never whether the vote would pass. It was always whether a vote would be held.

Why Vote Now

While I was wrong that the vote would not happen, I was right that it could only happen under two circumstances: if House Democrats would help Speaker Johnson to get the vote to the floor and if Donald Trump didn’t come out against the aid. It’s been clear since at least February, when the Senate sent the $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and the Indo-Pacific to the House, that Democrats were willing to help Johnson out.

There is nothing in the current bill, or the legislative machinations Johnson engineered to get a vote, that couldn’t have been done in February. It was only with Democratic votes that the current bill reached the floor and only with a larger number of Democrats than Republicans that got the bill through. The only thing that changed is that Johnson finally decided that aid for Ukraine was more important than comity within his Republican caucus.

Why this change? One reason is that the situation in Ukraine was rapidly getting worse. In the past two months, Ukrainian forces at the front have lost ground because they ran out of ammunition and Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure has suffered massive damage because Ukrainian defenses ran out of interceptors. Neither would have been the case if Johnson had moved to a vote two months ago. It took a sobering assessment by CIA Director Bill Burns, warning that Ukraine would lose the war without additional aid, for Johnson finally to get the point. “History judges us for what we do,” Johnson declared earlier this week. “This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage.” (Never mind that before today, Johnson had never voted in favor of a single dollar for Ukraine aid.)

The second thing that changed is that Trump remained silent on the aid vote. He railed against Europeans not doing enough (which, of course, is untrue). But unlike before, he has remained silent on the vote. What’s more, after flying to Mar-a-Lago a week ago, Johnson got Trump’s backing in a potential attempt by far-right Republican’s to oust him as Speaker. With Trump’s blessing, Johnson moved ahead with a vote this week.

Is It Too Late?

As soon as the Senate approves the House packages, which it is expected to do as early as Tuesday, and President Biden signs it, aid will begin to flow to Ukraine. The Pentagon has been prepared for months. Large stocks of ammunition are sitting in Germany, ready to ship to the frontlines. These should start filling inventories there within two weeks. In the meantime, Ukrainian forces that have husbanded limited supplies for months in fear they might run out, can now double up their firepower, knowing that additional ammo is on its way.

But will this be enough to turn the tide? Ukraine’s need for additional assistance has been clear since at least August 2023. It’s lost ground to Russian forces, who are increasingly emboldened and willing to take risks to force a breakthrough. The new aid package will be a shot in the arm of the Ukrainian forces. But they are still outnumbered and outgunned. The momentum is with Russia, not Ukraine.

As concerning is the reality that even with the new aid package the number of air defense systems and interceptors Ukraine needs urgently is large, and it isn’t clear that the US has sufficient stocks available to send over to Ukraine. That’s especially true as defensive requirements in the Middle East and elsewhere compete with Ukraine’s need to ward off the nightly Russian missile and drone attacks.

The next few months will tell whether the six-months delay in sending critical aid to Ukraine was too long or whether the large infusion arriving in the next few weeks can at least help Ukraine to hold the line.

It didn’t have to be this way. Ukraine’s need for military aid was clear and urgent six months ago, four months ago, two months ago. Nothing about this has changed. Except the courage to call a vote.