If Israel Needs Friends, So Does Ukraine
When Israel came under missile attack this weekend, the United States and key allies stepped in to defend it from the salvo launched by Iran. Ukraine now needs the same kind of help—urgently.
One of the big lessons Israel should learn from the Iranian missile attack over the weekend, I wrote Sunday, is that it needs friends. Since then we have learned that Israel’s need for friends was even more vital to its successful defense than initially thought.
Although the IDF claimed that 99 percent of the 330 or so missiles and drones Iran launched over the weekend were intercepted, US officials say that “half of the weapons fired by Iran failed upon launch or in flight due to technical issues.” And of the remaining 160 or so missiles and drones, the United States and its allies intercepted well over half.
This was the result of an effort the United States launched years ago to create a Middle East Air Defense (MEAD) Alliance. The MEAD consists of American battle management systems that integrates satellite, radar and tracking information with interceptors deployed on land, sea, and in the air in an effort to defend the entire region from Iranian missile attack.
Until this weekend, MEAD had never been used , but it sprung into action as soon as Iran fired the first salvo. In addition to Israel, which has a formidable air force and multi-layered missile defense system, the French, British, and Jordanian Air Forces downed the missiles and drones before they could explode in Israel. And, crucially, two American F15 squadrons, Patriot missile batteries in Iraq, and ship-based interceptors deployed in the Red Sea were devoted to the integrated defense effort.
The American forces alone shot down “more than 80” drones and six ballistic missiles. Britain, France, and Jordan also said their aircraft shot down “a number” of drones and possibly cruise missiles. Another critical contribution to the collective effort was likely provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which would have passed on radar-tracking data of incoming missiles and drones and opened their airspace for allied operations.
None of this is to minimize the extraordinary Israeli defense effort over the weekend. Nor is the success of the defense reason to ignore the outrageous nature of the Iranian missile attack—the first time it struck Israel directly. Any nation launching hundreds of missiles against another nation is acting in clear violation of international law, whether or not the missiles actually reach their intended target. It’s completely unacceptable, and has been rightly condemned by nations around the world.
At the same time, it is important to stress that Israel didn’t meet this attack on its own. It had friends willing to help defend it. And that help proved critical to the success.
What About Ukraine
There are lessons here for another country that has faced nightly missile barrages for months on end. Just this past week, Russia launched about the same number of missiles and drones against Ukraine as Iran launched against Israel. But unlike the Iranian attack, which Iran directed at less populated areas on the Golan Heights and in the Negev Desert, Russia attacked civilian infrastructure and the energy grid in cities throughout the country. And while Israel and its allies intercepted nearly all the Iranian missiles, Ukraine is facing Russia all on its own. Worse, it is running out of interceptors to shoot down attacking missiles.
Neither Israel nor Ukraine are members of NATO or have legally binding security guarantees from the United States or any other country. Yet, when Israel was attacked by missiles, Washington, Paris, London, and even Amman were ready to defend it against the attack. But when Ukraine is attacked, it’s on its own.
The reason for this disparity isn’t the scale of the Iranian salvo. Ukraine suffers attacks on this scale almost every week. Since the beginning of the war, Russia has launched almost 10,000 missiles and many thousands of drones. Many of those were intercepted and shot down, in most cases with western supplied air defenses. But Ukraine is running out of interceptors, and the rates of Russian success are steadily going up.
The failure by the US House of Representatives to pass much needed military assistance for Ukraine over the past 6 months is one reason why Russia is able to inflict increasing damage on Ukraine. But another reason is the unwillingness of the United States and its NATO allies to do what they just did in the Middle East: step in and help Ukraine directly against the nightly missile barrages from Russia.
NATO countries have made clear that they will not get directly involved in Ukraine’s defenses. “If you want to avoid an escalation in terms of a wider European war, I think the one thing you do need to avoid is NATO troops directly engaging Russian troops,” UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in explaining the difference. “That would be a danger of escalation.”
Russia is a nuclear power; Iran is not. Defending Ukraine against Russia would risk not just escalation, but nuclear war. Defending Israel against Iran might in fact avoid escalation, at least if Israel decides not to respond as the US and other allies are now urging.
The cold calculus of interests may explain this disparity in response—although that is hard to explain to Ukrainians who have suffered so much death and destruction through ten years of Russian aggression.
But given the effectiveness of this weekend’s defensive actions, is it perhaps time to rethink the calculus?
For two years, fear of escalation has limited western assistance to Ukraine. At first, the help was limited to anti-tank missiles, as longer-range rockets were deemed escalatory. Then we sent longer-range rockets, but refused to send tanks or combat aircraft. Now we’ve sent tanks and will soon send F16s, but not the longer-range missiles that can strike deep behind the frontlines. And we’re still telling Ukraine not to use our weapons to strike Russian territory, or even use their own long-range drones to attack oil refineries fueling the Russian war machine.
Yet, in each instance, the fear of escalation proved unfounded. Perhaps it’s time to place more faith in deterrence. For the reality is this: while Russia’s capacity to escalate, including with nuclear weapons, is real and needs to be considered, our capacity to respond with overwhelming force and even defeat Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is also real and something that Moscow would surely consider.
The need to recalculate the balance between fear of escalation on the one hand and faith in deterrence on the other is becoming all the more urgent given the rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground in Ukraine. Kyiv is running out of ammunition—especially artillery shells, where Russia’s current 5-1 advantage will soon become 10-1 unless new supplies arrive in the next few weeks. Congress is set to vote on providing Ukraine with much-needed new military aid this week—but there is no guarantee it will pass.
For too long Ukraine has stood on its own in the face of brutal aggression. Israel found out this weekend that countries facing attack need not stand alone. “The whole world sees what real defense is. It sees that it is feasible,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday evening. “And the whole world saw that Israel was not alone in this defense — the threat in the sky was also being eliminated by its allies.”
Israel has friends. Ukraine now needs these friends as well.
Great piece Ivo.