The False Promise of A Gaza Ceasefire

The deal between Israel and Hamas to halt fighting and begin to release the hostages may not last long. And even if it does, it won't settle the conflict.

The headline across today’s NYT front-page said it all: A Gaza Truce and Hostage Deal had finally been reached. Both the outgoing and incoming American President hailed the Wednesday agreement as a major breakthrough. While they couldn’t agree on who was responsible for the success, at least they agreed it was a good deal.

But is it? Already, there are major questions being raised in Israel about whether the deal will even take effect. The Israeli Cabinet was at first set to meet on Wednesday evening to approve the deal. That meeting is now not happening till Friday, if then. The same far-right voices in the Cabinet who railed against a ceasefire before are railing against it again. “This deal would effectively erase the achievements of the war,” said Itamar Ben-Gvir, the hardline national security minister. Some are even threatening to leave the Cabinet altogether, effectively bringing the government down and provoking early elections. No one knows if under those circumstances a ceasefire will start, let alone whether it will stick.

The US-Qatari Version

Assume, however, that the Cabinet finds a way to say “yes.” Will the ceasefire become permanent? It depends. For there really are two version of this deal. One version is the one US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators have painstakingly negotiated since last Spring. That deal is the one recorded on paper and accepted by Hamas. It is virtually identical to the one President Biden hailed on May 31. It has three phases:

• In Phase 1, which will last 42 days, the parties will cease fire, Israel will withdraw from populated areas, Palestinians can move back to their homes, humanitarian aid shipments will accelerate, and, most importantly, some 33 hostages will be released in exchange for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners who were not involved in the October 7 attacks. The sides also commit to start negotiating the details of phase 2 and 3.

• Phase 2 will also last 6 weeks and would end with a permanent cessation of hostilities, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the final release of all hostages, including the bodies of those who died or were killed during their capture, in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners.

• Phase 3 would see the rebuilding of Gaza and the emergence of a government that would not include Hamas.

This version of the deal has been on the table for more than seven months—during which time many more hostages lost their lives. But this was not the deal Benjamin Netanyahu was ever willing to accept.

Bibi’s Version

Instead, Netanyahu has long favored another version of the deal, which focuses only on the first phase of this agreement. It would accept a temporary halt to the fighting and a consolidation of Israeli military positions outside populated areas in Gaza in return for the release of female, young, and old hostages. But rather than moving to phase 2, this version foresees a resumption of the fighting. According to Yossi Fuchs, Netanyahu’s chief of staff, the deal "includes the option to resume the fighting at the end of phase 1 if the negotiations over phase 2 don't develop in a manner that promises the fulfillment of the war’s goals: military and civil annihilation of Hamas and a release of all hostages."

That, however, is a recipe for returning to war, no matter what. Because Phase 1 will, by definition, not lead to the “military and civilian annihilation of Hamas.” In effect, what Netanyahu is selling is a temporary ceasefire, some more humanitarian aid, the release of 33 hostages, and then a resumption of the fighting. It’s doubtful this will satisfy an Israeli public weary of war and hoping to see longheld loved ones alive or those who are not buried. But it is almost certain that Hamas isn’t ready to sign up to this deal, which is why it is far too early to celebrate the agreement—let alone prepare to welcome the hostages back.

No Day After

Yet, assume for another moment that somehow the deal sticks—phase one will lead to phase two. What then? Who will govern the territory? Who will pay for rebuilding a landscape reduced to rubble? Who will feed the people, house them, put them through school, get them jobs, treat their diseases, wounds, and emotional traumas? Who will provide for security against a return of Hamas, other terrorist groups, vigilantes, and criminals praying on the vulnerable and weak?

The agreement is silent on what happens to Gaza if the war truly ends. The territory, home to more than two million people (assuming that’s the number that indeed survived) is a living hell in which the most basic necessities—water, food, shelter, medical care—are luxuries few have access to or can afford.

Since October 7, 2023, it has been clear to everyone that Israel had not only a right—indeed, a duty—to respond to the worst attack on its territory since its founding, but also a need to consider how the war would end and what would come after. The Netanyahu government singularly failed on that latter score. And the result is that 15 months after the start of the war, no one has any better idea of what will happen in Gaza once the shooting and bombing stops than they had on October 7. Yet, without a future for Gaza, the war will not really end.

So, let’s hope there will be a truce and we can welcome the release of hostages. But let’s not for a moment think that this war is over.