What Russia Wants in Ukraine—And NATO Needs to Prevent
NATO declared that Ukraine's path towards membership is "irreversible." But saying so doesn't make it so. And Russia is determined to prevent Ukraine joining NATO forever.
Less than 24 hours after NATO leaders declared that they would “continue to support [Ukraine] on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” Russia’s former president, Dmitri Medvedev, countered that it must not happen:
We must do everything so that Ukraine's 'irreversible path' to NATO ends with either the disappearance of Ukraine or the disappearance of NATO. Or even better - the disappearance of both.
With that one sentence, Medvedev underscored what Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine is all about—the destruction of Ukraine as an independent state and the disintegration of NATO, whose existence has inhibited Soviet and Russian imperial ambitions for 75 years.
Despite declaring the path to NATO membership “irreversible”—a word NATO countries spent months debating whether or not to utter—the actual commitment to Ukraine that NATO leaders did make falls far short of what is needed to ensure Russia fails in its destructive ambitions.
Not that President Volodymyr Zelensky left the Washington Summit last week empty-handed. Far from it.
Key NATO allies, including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, and the United States, promised to deliver Patriot and other long-range anti-missile defenses, more than doubling the number in country.
The United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands announced that the first F-16s, fourth generation combat aircraft, will be deployed in Ukraine this summer.
A new NATO command has been set up to coordinate security assistance and training of Ukrainian forces.
NATO members as whole promised to spend at least $40 billion next year on equipment for Ukraine’s defense.
And 21 nations plus the European Union signed a “Ukraine Compact” combining their bilateral security agreements into an integrated package to support building Ukraine’s future armed forces and ensure it can deter and defend itself against any future threat from Russia.
These are major, important steps that will enable Ukraine to hold the line at the front, mobilize new reserves, train for future operations to retake lost territory, and better protect its cities and critical infrastructure against the unrelenting Russian drone and missile assaults.
But these steps do not make clear to Russia that NATO is determined to do whatever it needs to do to thwart Russia’s larger ambitions. That requires not only a strong and vibrant NATO alliance, which its members are on their way to building. It also requires Moscow understanding that Ukraine will be a full member of that strong and vibrant alliance as soon as practical.
There is nothing “irreversible” about the path Ukraine is currently on. Saying so doesn’t make it so. NATO membership requires the alliance’s 32 members to ratify Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty. That process can start only after all of them formally sign Ukraine’s “accession protocols” inviting it to join the alliance. Short of that, and short of formal ratification of the protocols by all existing members, nothing about Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible.
The Washington Summit celebrating NATO’s existence as the strongest and longest-lasting military alliance in history, would have been the right time to start this process. As I argued last week, NATO could have made clear that it sees Ukraine’s membership in NATO as the best and only way to end the conflict—and defeat Russia. And it should have given some clarity as to when and how Ukraine’s “irreversible” path actually ends in membership by:
Making clear that Ukraine will become a member of NATO when there is a durable ceasefire or armistice.
Including the entire territory of Ukraine, as recognized by Russia and others when it became independent in 1991, in NATO.
Extending the collective defense commitment enshrined in Article 5 to the territory that Kyiv actually administered, but not to any territory that remains occupied.
Ukraine agreeing that it would not use military force to regain any territory that remains occupied and that if it does recommence military operations NATO would not invoke Article 5.
Considering a temporary limit on the kinds and extent of NATO military deployments on Ukrainian territory, including nuclear weapons and long-range missile systems, as is presently the case for some other NATO members.
NATO leaders missed an important opportunity in Washington to send Ukraine, Russia, and the world the right signal of resolve. Russia may desire the “disappearance” of Ukraine and NATO. It’s up to NATO countries to make clear Russia will fail.