What Trump 2.0 would mean for NATO

It need not be the end of NATO, but it would be a very different Alliance

NATO turns 75 years old on April 4 this year. Then, in July, it’s 32 leaders (assuming Hungary follows Turkey and the other 29 NATO members in ratifying Sweden’s accession) will meet in Washington to celebrate this historic achievement.

One question, above all, will hang over that meeting: Will this be the last anniversary the NATO Alliance will celebrate? Many fear that if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in November, NATO will soon be no more.

I share this concern about NATO’s future if Trump again occupies the Oval Office. America is the core of the Atlantic Alliance—its biggest military contributor and its undisputed leader. And Trump’s antipathy towards NATO is well known.

Yet, NATO need not end if Trump comes back. This isn’t because Congress recently passed a law saying no president can withdraw unilateral from NATO. That’s really beside the point. It’s because NATO can (and should) persist even without the United States as an actual or active member. It will be a very different NATO—and one that is far less capable and far less fearsome to its adversaries than is the case today. But it would be far better in helping its remaining members to ensure their security than any plausible European alternative.

I explore these questions in more detail in my latest From Across the Pond column for Politico.eu. Please take a look and let me know what you think.