World Review: Easing Chinese Tariffs, Defying Judicial Orders, Wobbling German Government
A brief synopsis of this week's show
Each Friday morning, I host a video podcast called “World Review with Ivo Daalder” where three journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
This morning, March 28, we discussed the US-China trade war, the standoff between the White House and the US Judiciary over deportations, and the new German government. Joining me for this conversation were Felicia Schwarz of Politico, Andrew Roth of the Guardian, and Lee Hockstader of the Washington Post.
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While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
Before addressing the main topics, we discussed the statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Paris this morning that the US would “move on” from its efforts to secure a peace in Ukraine if an agreement wasn’t reached within the next few days. Rubio’s statement puts to nought the claim of President Trump that he would end the war “within 24 hours.” After 87 days of trying, an end to the war is no closer. That is hardly surprising. Not only was it clear that neither party was ready to settle the issue on terms acceptable to the other—which is why the war has been continuing for more than 11 years—but the way the Trump administration went about getting a deal showed, Lee said, a degree of naiveté about how to achieve peace in the region. There were no direct talks between the parties, or even mediated talks. There was the blithe assumption that Ukraine would cave to Trump’s demands and that Trump’s personal relationship with Putin would suffice to get a deal. That was never likely to happen. And Rubio now seems to have admitted as such.
Next we looked at the burgeoning trade war between the United States and China. While President Trump speaks confidently about his ability to negotiate “a very good deal” with China, President Xi is traveling around Asia in search for allies to “fight” the US tariffs that have shocked everyone in the region. Who has the upper hand in this fight? Trump started the war believing he did. As his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, Beijing is holding only a “pair of twos.” But it increasingly looks like that was a miscalculation. While China has held fast, the US has already blinked, exempting cell phones, computers, and other electronics from the 145 percent tariffs imposed on Chinese imports into the United States. In contrast, China has continued to tighten the screws, including denying the export of critical rare earth materials and magnets that are used for advanced manufacturing, including cars and military systems. Another indication of who seems to have the upper hand, Andrew argued, is that Trump has said repeatedly that China is reaching out and he is talking to people at the “highest levels,” but there is no confirmation from Beijing that any talks are being held, let alone between Trump and Xi themselves.
Then, another standoff—this time between the White House and the U.S. judiciary. The depth of the division became clear this week after another astonishing Oval Office meeting with President Trump and El Salvadorian President Bukele, who both claimed that they were powerless to return Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an El Salvadorian who had been deported in error last month, even after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the White House should “facilitate” doing so. The specifics of the case are extraordinary: a person in the United States who was protected from being deported back home by court order was then deported “in error” to El Salvador, where he languishes in a notorious prison without ever having been charged of a crime. But the issue goes well beyond a single individual, Felicia maintained. It affects the entire concept of the rule of law. US courts have ruled against the Trump administration repeatedly and this week moved to hold it in “criminal contempt.” But what happens if the White House refuses to comply with a clear judicial order. At that point, we no longer have a constitutional crisis—but a constitutional crash or coup (as I wrote some two months ago).
Finally, an agreement on a new government in Germany—yet another “Grosse Koalition,” uniting the center-right Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats. The new government, Lee argued, comes to power facing some severe headwinds. The incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has never held executive office and will take his seat with over 60 percent of Germans thinking he’s unprepared for the job. Last week, the far-right AfD polled first in an opinion poll—the first time since the Nazis were in power that a party with close affinity to the National Socialists has polled ahead of all other parties. And there are still significant differences between the governing parties, most notably on the issue of immigration. At the same time, Merz has indicated that he is ready to rise to the challenge. He has declared that Europe needs to become independent from the United States, and successfully maneuvered even before coming to power to lift key restrictions on borrowing, freeing up as much as one trillion euro for investment in infrastructure and defense.
That’s it for my quick takes of this week’s episode here on America Abroad. To get the full flavor, please listen to the episode itself.