World Review: Gaza After Sinwar, Biden's Farewell Tour, Canada-India Conflict
A brief synopsis of this week's show
Each Friday morning, I host a video podcast called “World Review with Ivo Daalder” where three journalists from major news outlets around the world join me in discussing the latest global news stories of the week.
This morning, October 18, I was joined by Carla Anne Robbins of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ravi Agarwal of Foreign Policy, and Steve Erlanger of the New York Times.
“World Review is always fascinating. I love the fact that you can get journalists from around the world to participate since zoom is the medium.”
— A Subscriber to America Abroad
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
On Thursday, Israel confirmed that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas mastermind behind the October 7 massacre, had been killed through a chance encounter with an Israeli patrol. His death brings a measure of justice—but will it change the course of the war? Carla thought that the chances for a ceasefire had increased a smidge, if only because the new Hamas leadership might be more inclined to accept a temporary halt to the fighting. But overall, while an important moment, Sinwar’s death is unlikely to make much difference. Israel’s government may see this success as reason to press on and try to eliminate the threats to their security. Hamas fighters have little incentive to give up the hostages or give up their fight. Perhaps the Palestinians will seize the chance of Hamas’s decapitation to put in place an independent and technocratic government to take over in both the West Bank and Gaza. But as former Israeli foreign minister Abba Eban used to say, “the Palestinians rarely waste an opportunity to waste an opportunity.”
Biden traveled to Germany on Friday for a 24-hour visit to express his support for his strong ally, Olaf Scholz, and meet with his German, French, and British counterparts to discuss Ukraine. For Biden as for the other leaders, Ukraine now defines the future of the transatlantic relationship, Steve argued. His visit to Europe was designed to stress the importance of continuing to support Ukraine, no matter what happens in the US elections. Europeans don’t need all that much convincing; their bigger problem is the lack of capabilities Ukraine needs to sustain the fight. While Trump has made clear that he wants to end the war mostly on terms favorable to Russia, a Harris win offers the prospect not only for continued US military aid but perhaps the relaxation of some key limitations on that support Biden and Scholz have long insisted on. The US president and German Chancellor have long been spooked by the possibility of retaliation—a fear that in Biden’s case derives from his long concern with nuclear weapons and escalation. Harris doesn’t share that background and may be more inclined to take risks Biden hasn’t been willing to take.
This week also saw a major diplomatic escalation in Canada, where the government expelled 6 senior Indian diplomats after accusing Delhi of being behind the murder of a Sikh separatists more than a year ago. Prime Minister Modi and the Indian government have denied any involvement. Washington shares Ottawa’s concern, Ravi maintained, but unlike Prime Minister Trudeau, the White House has sought to downplay the confrontation. Even as the US Justice Department revealed new charges implicating a former Indian intelligence officer with plotting the murder of another Sikh separatist in New York, its public posture has been mostly silent. While concerned about human rights, for Washington Delhi represents an important partner in the competition with China. For Trudeau, however, human rights concerns play a larger foreign policy role while the Sikh community in Canada is a much more important political constituency than in the United States.
That’s it for my quick takes of this week’s episode here on America Abroad. To get the full flavor, please listen to the episode itself.