World Review: Germany Gets Serious, Israel Breaks Ceasefire, Trump Threatens Iran

A brief synopsis of this week's show

Each Friday morning, I host a video podcast called “World Review with Ivo Daalder” where three journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.

This morning, March 21, we discussed the German decision to massively increase spending, the resumption of war in Gaza, and whether Iran may decide to negotiate with the United States about its nuclear program. Joining me this week were Catherine Philp of The Times, Stefan Kornelius of the Süddeutsche Zeitung, and Bobby Ghosh of Bloomberg.

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While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:

• First up, a discussion of the momentous decision in Germany to overturn the constitutional “debt break” and allow nearly €1 trillion worth in borrowing to spend on defense and infrastructure. These funds will be transformative—for Germany, for Europe, and for the transatlantic relationship. They will help boost German economic activity by modernizing much of its infrastructure. It will make sufficient funds available for Germany to rearm. And together with major new spending by other allies, it will reduce Europe’s reliance on the United States for their defense. But, as Stefan reminded us, having sufficient money is not sufficient to ensure the progress many hope to achieve. There will be labor shortages and big questions whether the production facilities necessary for rearmament will emerge quickly enough. Europe is also confronting a fragmented defense industrial picture, because national governments are much more inclined to use government spending at home than abroad. Some Europeans, moreover, may be suspicious about the emergence of a Germany economic giant focused on rearmament. History has not been kind when this happened in the past—though Catherine rightly suggested that Germans were still more aware of that history than most Europeans and would do everything they can to reassure their neighbors.

• Then we turned to Gaza, where earlier this week Israel restarted the war against Hamas, breaking the ceasefire both sides had agreed upon in early January. The resumption of war was entirely predictable—indeed, Israel’s government had shown no intention of ever entering phase two of the three-phased ceasefire plan. And Hamas was not about to give up the one major card it holds—hostages—unless there was a clear guarantee the war would end. The same dynamic that had characterized the war in its first 17 months persists today—except, as Catherine argued, there now seems to be no limit to how much force Israel can use, as the White House has given its full backing to the resumption of fighting. Israel has cut off food aid, electricity, and water, while moving ground forces back into densely populated areas. The destruction is massive; the suffering severe. Hamas, meanwhile, is a shadow of itself, no longer able to truly threaten Israel with rockets, let alone direct attack. It still is believed to have 20-25,000 fighters, but many are young and inexperienced. That makes the continuation of fighting more palatable to Israelis, though public pressure to see the hostages released remains intense.

• Finally, President Trump ordered wide-scale strikes against Houthis in Yemen and promised “complete annihilation” of the group if it didn’t stop firing on ships in the Red Sea. At the same time, Trump warned Iran to stop helping the Houthis while also sending a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader proposing negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Bobby argued that the Trump strategy is likely to fail on both objectives. The Houthis have proved resilient ever since taking power in Yemen and there is little indication that the United States is prepared to use the kind of force necessary to eliminate the threat completely. At the same time, the Iranian leadership is making clear that it doesn’t respond well to threats and has rejected calls for negotiations. Animosity towards America and Israel is the last remaining rationale for the regime to retain power. A deal with the United States would undermine its legitimacy. Stefan suggested that Iranian weakness and the apparent willingness of China and Russia to engage in possible talks with the US on Iran might provide the opening Trump is looking for. Whether Tehran will respond positively remains the ultimate questions.

That’s it for my quick takes of this week’s episode here on America Abroad. To get the full flavor, please listen to the episode itself.