World Review: Ukraine's Shock Incursion, Gaza Ceasefire, Disinformation Threats.
A brief synopsis of this week's show
Each Friday morning, I host a video podcast called “World Review with Ivo Daalder” where three journalists from major news outlets around the world join me in discussing the latest global news stories of the week.
This morning, August 16, I was joined by Carla Anne Robins of the Council on Foreign Relations, Ravi Agrawal of Foreign Policy, and Stefan Kornelius of Süddeutsche Zeitung
“World Review is always fascinating. I love the fact that you can get journalists from around the world to participate since zoom is the medium.”
— A Subscriber to America Abroad
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
Last week, Ukraine launched a surprise invasion of Russia—the first such incursion since the end of World War 2. The move surprised everyone, Russia and the West alike, and has resulted in a significant advance across Russia’s territory, the displacement of 130,000 Russian civilians, and the capture of some 80 settlements. The attack was a tactical success, catching Moscow off guard and raising serious questions about how Russia’s armed forces are protecting the much-vaunted motherland. For all the talk of Ukraine being the aggressor in Moscow’s public propaganda, the Russian military left its borders with Ukraine undefended and committed all of the ground forces it has to the fight inside Ukraine. Operationally, Ukraine showed it can conduct the type of combined armor maneuvers that NATO countries have trained and equipped it execute. But so far, offensive success has come only against weakly defended area; where defense is strong, offense has had a difficult time to make much progress. Strategically, “this is Moscow’s nightmare,” Stefan argued. For decades post-Soviet Russia has sought to ensure its territorial integrity by occupying and destabilizing its immediate neighborhood. But now Ukraine has done what no country since Germany in 1941 has dared: attack and take Russian territory.
Feverish negotiations among top Israeli, US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials to agree a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza have been underway for two days in Doha. A ceasefire is widely seen as the last best hope to avoid a regional escalation, following Israel’s assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas officials in Beirut and Tehran. But Hamas has shown no interest in a deal, while the Israeli far-right has hamstrung Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is more interested in staying in power than getting a deal. The situation is fraught, because absent a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah and Iran have vowed to retaliate. And while the US has deployed major forces to the region, it’s far from clear that’s enough to hold off further escalation. The situation, Carla said, has all the marking of Holmes and Moriaty jumping over the falls.
The FBI announced earlier in the week that Iran had sought to hack email accounts in both presidential campaigns, succeeding in retrieving documents from the Trump campaign, including a large dossier used to vet J.D. Vance for the vice presidential nomination. This is but the latest instance of foreign interference in elections. Its malign influence was highlighted in 2016, but this time the media and information environment is more siloed and less open to objectivity and truth. This places a special burden on the media and government. When should the media broadcast and report on information that was hacked? How can the government protect open communication and yet regulate what appears on social media and other channels, especially if what appears there is false or wrong (as was the case following the horrific knifing of three little girls in England a few weeks ago)? “Will free speech be the end of free speech,” Stefan asked. Ravi’s suggested that making technical and media literacy a key goal in education might provide the best answer to ensuring it doesn't end.
That’s it for my quick takes of this week’s episode here on America Abroad. To get the full flavor, please listen to the episode itself.