Trump's fundamental misunderstanding of the war in Ukraine made his efforts to end it unworkable. Appeasing the aggressor and punishing the victim was never going to work.
I mostly agree with this analysis, except I put a 25% probability on Trump not walking away.
The Europeans have been somewhat paralyzed by the U.S. central role in Ukraine & NATO. It is hard for them to accept the cost and frantic burden of keeping UKR in the fight.
Trump has an animal instinct for hurting those he dislikes. He may wish to stay involved in UKR just to keep Europe unbalanced and hoping for a U.S. bailout.
Trump is like an abusive spouse. He may say his partner is a worthless burden. But losing control and attention may be too much for a narcissist to face.
That's certainly possible. But you can see him already shifting to the next "Big Deal" -- Iran. As I wrote earlier this week, he has a better chance getting a deal with Iran than he does to end the war in Ukraine (or Gaza for that matter). Of course, that deal likely will be little different from the 2015, which he called "the worst deal in history" and then abandoned in 2018. I guess the true art of the deal is to sell the same deal as "the best deal ever."
I smell that Trump will continue to provide intelligence. It is a low cost way for him to remain relevant, keep Europe dependent. A card in his parlance. I so hope you are right and he makes a clean break. Europe needs that stimulus.
I watch a stream of highly placed experts on youtube rail about Trump's evil intentions. Then they conclude Europe (or more often Britain) must keep him engaged or else....
I believe majority of elite opinion favors agreeing to a (perhaps slightly modified) Trump deal.
Has Trump found a path to achieve peace in Ukraine?
I mostly agree with this analysis, except I put a 25% probability on Trump not walking away.
The Europeans have been somewhat paralyzed by the U.S. central role in Ukraine & NATO. It is hard for them to accept the cost and frantic burden of keeping UKR in the fight.
Trump has an animal instinct for hurting those he dislikes. He may wish to stay involved in UKR just to keep Europe unbalanced and hoping for a U.S. bailout.
Trump is like an abusive spouse. He may say his partner is a worthless burden. But losing control and attention may be too much for a narcissist to face.
That's certainly possible. But you can see him already shifting to the next "Big Deal" -- Iran. As I wrote earlier this week, he has a better chance getting a deal with Iran than he does to end the war in Ukraine (or Gaza for that matter). Of course, that deal likely will be little different from the 2015, which he called "the worst deal in history" and then abandoned in 2018. I guess the true art of the deal is to sell the same deal as "the best deal ever."
I smell that Trump will continue to provide intelligence. It is a low cost way for him to remain relevant, keep Europe dependent. A card in his parlance. I so hope you are right and he makes a clean break. Europe needs that stimulus.
I watch a stream of highly placed experts on youtube rail about Trump's evil intentions. Then they conclude Europe (or more often Britain) must keep him engaged or else....
I believe majority of elite opinion favors agreeing to a (perhaps slightly modified) Trump deal.
Has Trump found a path to achieve peace in Ukraine?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/commentary-has-trump-found-a-path-to-achieve-peace-in-ukraine/ar-AA1DGo2f
Trump’s peace deal is terrible. Ukraine should still accept it
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/trumps-peace-deal-is-terrible-ukraine-should-still-accept-it-btw6fzkrr
The political fight is very much unsettled.
Of course Trump failed. He failed here, with Israel, in business multiple times. He’s a flop.