Will Trump Sell Out Ukraine?

Trump's phone call with Vladimir Putin does not bode well for Ukraine's future.

President Trump got on the phone with his BFF Vladimir Putin for 90 minutes and announced that talks to end Russia’s war against Ukraine would start “immediately.” There’s lots of things wrong with this—starting with the idea of a phone call with the man singularly responsible for inflicting the gravest crime and greatest horror on another European nation since the end of World War Two.

But the most worrisome aspect of Trump’s normalization of Putin is that it signals bad news for Ukraine. As far as Trump is concerned, Ukraine’s future should be decided by the perpetrator of the crime, not its victim. Trump’s sole interest is in ending the fighting—not in punishing the aggressor or solving the underlying issue that led to war in the first place.

Four Keys to a Deal

Any deal to end the fighting in Ukraine will have to tackle four critical issues:

• Borders. Russia currently occupies about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory—most of it gained since the large-scale invasion that commenced three years ago this month. (Ukraine occupies a small slice of Russia, as well, but it is holding that territory mainly for negotiations, not annexation.) The status of these occupied territories, including Crimea Russia seized in 2014, will be key to ending the war.

• Security guarantees. Ukraine will only accept an end to the fighting if it has real, credible guarantees that its friends in the West will ensure its security in the long run. For Kyiv, that has meant membership in NATO, though it might temporarily settle for ironclad security guarantees from major countries akin to NATO’s article 5 commitment.

• Sanctions. Russia will want sanctions relief for the price of ending its war against Ukraine. The sanctions have inflicted significant economic costs on Russia and also curtailed its ability to feed its war machine—though less than many of its advocates had hoped.

• Assistance. Ukraine has been devastated by three years of unrelenting attacks on its civilian infrastructure (not to mention the total destruction of the areas now occupied by Russia). It will need well over $500 billion for reconstruction, and also require a long-term commitment to military aid to ensure its armed forces remain strong enough to deter and, if necessary, defend against a resumption of war.

Getting each of these elements right is critical not only to ending the fighting but sustaining the absence of war for the long term. Even then, this will not be a true peace. So long as Russia covets any part of Ukrainian territory and seeks its subjugation, real peace is impossible.

The Bad News

Trump’s desire to end the war and being seen as a “peacemaker” means the US president will be more than happy to reach a deal on terms favorable to Putin.

Trump is interested in a deal—any deal—that ends the fighting in Ukraine. He doesn’t care about Ukraine’s future or Europe’s security. Nor does he believe that a secure Ukraine in a secure Europe is vital to America’s security. He just wants a deal. And a Noble Peace Prize.

Indeed, his top lieutenants are already making this clear. On his first visit to NATO Headquarters, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth set the tone for what is to come. He told his Ukrainian counterpart and NATO Allies that regaining control of Ukraine’s 2014 borders was an “unrealistic objective", effectively conceding Russia the first key to a deal. He also ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, and told European countries to deploy a military force to secure the peace after the fighting had ended, but made clear that the United States would neither participate nor come to their aid if Russia were to attack—effectively undercutting the second key to a deal.

What about sanctions? While Trump threatened to “put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” on Russia if a deal wasn’t reached soon, after his call with Putin the pressure is now on Ukraine, not Russia, to deliver. Moreover, while the threat of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions is both vague and, given the lack of trade between the US and Russia, meaningless, Trump has long made clear that he doesn’t like sanctions and has mused about lifting them on Russia to reach a deal. Yet, to ensure Russia’s compliance with any deal, maintaining rather than lifting sanctions will be crucial. So lifting them prematurely would effectively undermine the third key.

Which leaves the question of Ukraine assistance—economic and military. There is not much hope of that when it comes to US aid. One of the first steps Trump took when returning to office last month was to end all foreign aid disbursements—including to Ukraine. Rather than expending any further resources to help reconstruct Ukraine, Trump wants Kyiv to pay for past (and possibly future) assistance “the equivalent like $500 billion worth of rare earth” mineral. There goes the fourth key

Any Deal Will Do

Trump is interested in a deal—any deal—that ends the fighting in Ukraine. He doesn’t care about Ukraine’s future or Europe’s security. Nor does he believe that a secure Ukraine in a secure Europe is vital to America’s security.

All he wants is a deal. And a Noble Peace Prize.