World Review: Jordan Drone Strike, US-China Relations, and Farmers Protests in Europe

A brief synopsis of this week's show

Each Friday morning, I host a video podcast called “World Review with Ivo Daalder” where three journalists from major news outlets around the world join me in discussing the latest global news stories of the week.

This morning, February 2, I was joined by Susan Glasser of The New Yorker, Ravi Agrawal of Foreign Policy, and Giles Whittell of Tortoise.

While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are three interesting things I took away from our discussion today:

• Last Sunday, Iranian-backed militias carried out a drone attack against a US base in Jordan that killed three US soldiers and wounded dozens more. President Biden promised to retaliate—but five days later, nothing has happened.¹ Susan explained how the president and his team were weighing the various considerations as they prepared to strike. One of the administration’s top priorities since October 7 has been to avoid widening the war—but Iranian-backed forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen seemed determine to test its ability to avoid escalation. Calibrating the US military response to send a clear message that killing Americans is unacceptable and deterring future attacks while avoiding all-out escalation throughout the region is therefore particular important. The problem is that no one knows what kinds of strikes can achieve all these objectives—which is why the administration is taking its time. One possible sign of good news is the indication from Tehran that it doesn’t want a direct military confrontation with the United States—leaving open the possibility that if the US attacks targets outside of Iran, it might not retaliate.

• One apparent bright spot in the world is the seeming determination of the United States and China to use diplomacy to address differences between them and avoid outright confrontation. Since last summer, US officials have visited Beijing and Chinese officials have traveled to Washington. The Biden-Xi Summit last November appeared to put the relationship back on track. But Ravi argued that while this detente-like phase is to be welcomed, the US and China still see their relations in very different ways. The Biden administration is keen on managing competition—with equal emphasis on competing and managing, understanding that differences are real and remain. The Chinese appear to want a world in which both countries avoid confrontation by each recognizing the interests of the other and accommodating accordingly. Those differences may not matter much when both Beijing and Washington have other issues to focus on, but they do suggest that conflict can flare up at anytime.

• Farmers on the European continent are protesting in cities far and wide. They have blockaded highways and sent thousands of tractors into Brussels to try and disrupt a crucial EU leaders meeting on Thursday. Their grievances focus on rising fuel and feed prices, climate and other regulations, and competition of cheap goods from foreign countries. Giles argued that Ukraine is central to much of this. The high prices are partly the result of the war and cheap agricultural goods are entering the European market from Ukraine. And the bureaucratic regulations are making it difficult to get subsidies from the EU. The farmers have finally had enough. Leaders are listening. France now opposes an EU free trade agreement with Mercosur, the South American trade block, because it would bring in cheaper agricultural products. And the EU promises to cut red tape. But so long as the war in Ukraine continues, farmers will be affected—with political consequences for many countries.

That’s it for my quick takes of this week’s episode here on America Abroad. To get the full flavor, please listen to the episode itself.

1. Shortly before posting, news broke of a series of US strikes against targets in Syria and Iraq, in what that US promises will be a campaign of some duration.